One athlete profile, this week's training decision

Send athlete exports. Know what to adjust this week.

An AthDash Causal Driver Audit reviews one athlete's workouts, wellness, travel notes, and benchmark results from existing exports. It returns a plain-English Driver Card for this week's coaching decision: what is most likely worth changing, how strong the evidence is, and what is too thin to say yet.

View as

Use it before the next check-in, workout change, or athlete conversation, with caveats and no-claim states already visible.

Send exports Get Driver Cards Use in AI notes
AthDashCausal Driver Audit
Ready for coach review
Driver Card Act

Alex Rivera · 10K build · next 7 days

-6.8% Next-day readiness drag after late strength

Move heavy lower-body strength before 5pm or separate it from key running sessions.

Evidence strong
Caveats travel
Sample43 sessions
Window24-36h
Claim gateallowed
AI coaching note

Allowed wording: likely worth adjusting this week. Do not claim injury prevention or medical benefit.

Audits one athlete profile from existing exports

INTERVALS.ICUWHOOPTRAININGPEAKSOURAGARMINFITAPPLE HEALTHCSV/JSON
01 / The problem

AthDash answers the question coaches actually ask: what should change now?

It reads the data you already have for one athlete, checks whether the pattern holds up, and returns a simple audit: what to adjust, what to watch, and what not to say yet. If there is not enough data, it says that instead of making up advice.

Everything correlates

False patterns look persuasive

Track enough signals and something will line up with a good session. AthDash checks the pattern against your athlete's own history before it becomes coaching advice.

One number, no context

Scores do not tell you what to change

A readiness number can tell you today looks rough. It does not tell you whether the next move is sleep timing, training load, recovery, spacing, or doing nothing yet.

No sense of enough

The dangerous part is confidence

A coach can live with "not enough evidence yet." The risk is a system that sounds certain from a few useful data points and turns a hunch into a rule.

02 / Decision surface

The output is a weekly decision card, not another dashboard.

For each athlete, AthDash shows the likely adjustment, evidence strength, sample size, caveats, and how carefully to word the recommendation. A coach can use it in the next check-in; an AI coaching agent can read the same answer before drafting notes.

Alex Rivera / within-athlete

Aerobic decoupling → Time trial

lag 1-42 d / n=18 / FIT rides

Export card ↗
ASupported / placebo clean
Advise

For Alex, steadier long rides are tracking with stronger late-race pace this week. Adjust endurance work, but keep the fatigue caveat attached.

+2.4%late-race pace
window 1-42 d / mean
Hover a point or evidence row: the caveat travels with the claim.
AI note guardrail

ADVISE: It is OK to say this likely helped Alex's late-race pace, as long as the fatigue caveat is included.

Coach decision

What should I change for my athlete this week?

AthDash points to the adjustment, shows how strong the evidence is, and keeps the uncertainty visible so the coach can act without guessing.

AI coaching agent

What can my agent safely say?

Before a coaching agent writes a check-in, it can read the same answer: suggested adjustment, effect, range, sample, caveats, and allowed wording.

Shared answer

The same answer travels everywhere.

Effect, range, sample, caveats, and allowed wording stay attached across the report, console, and AI-readable output for the same athlete.

The useful part: AthDash helps the coach make the call first. If an AI coaching agent drafts the check-in, it gets the same evidence and caveats.

Coach call

Use the Driver Card before the next check-in.

Report

Export the same effect, range, caveats, and sample.

Agent packet

Give an AI coaching agent the allowed wording.

03 / Effect modifiers

The same input can help or hurt depending on the athlete's current state.

Most tools report one average effect. AthDash checks whether the answer changes under your athlete's real conditions, and only promotes that nuance when the evidence is strong enough.

readout / training load → next benchmark
effect (HRV suppressed)−0.056 effect (HRV recovered)+0.022 modifierHRV vs. baseline evidenceexploratory / n=19
conditional slope HRV ↗ rising
−0.056
0 HRV THRESHOLD
Load hurts
HRV < threshold
Load helps
HRV ≥ threshold
04 / AI notes

If you use AI for check-ins, give it the card first.

AthDash can sit in the background as the stats layer for the athlete in question. Instead of asking an AI coaching agent to reread weeks of workouts and wellness logs, the agent reads the same Driver Card the coach sees: suggested adjustment, effect, range, sample, caveats, and allowed wording.

athdash · compact evidence packet
athdash_get_findings(
  athlete="A.R.", actionable_only=true)
  driver:   "aerobic_decoupling"
  outcome:  "time_trial"
  evidenceSUPPORTED  (n=19, p<.001)
  effect:    +2.4% late-race pace
  license:   ADVISE
  interval[+0.78, +1.93]
  caveat:   "include fatigue flag"

athdash_can_i_claim(
  driver="ctl", outcome="ftp",
  athlete="A.R.")
  evidenceINSUFFICIENT  (n=3)
  license:   DECLINE
Allowed wording · low to high confidence
DECLINENot enough of their data to judge yet
BORROWLean on the cohort prior, flagged as borrowed
WITHHOLDSignal is within the noise; do not claim it
FLAG_WEAKWeak signal; mention only if asked
HYPOTHESIZEWorking hypothesis; test it before going harder
ADVISEUse it, but keep the uncertainty visible
ACTEstablished; may base a recommendation on it
The packet

The stats are digested first

Your coaching agent gets a small summary of the athlete's adjustment, effect, range, sample, caveats, and allowed wording. It spends time writing clearly, not re-parsing raw history.

The depth

It gets the numbers behind the sentence

Before the agent writes, it can read the effect size, uncertainty, stress-test status, and caveats for your athlete. That is more useful than asking a model to infer stats from raw exports.

Allowed wording

The wording is still capped

Every finding carries a rung, DECLINE to ACT. The agent stays inside that permission instead of making the advice sound stronger than the evidence.

The trace

Every answer has a receipt

Each line the agent writes traces back to your athlete's digested data, range, and allowed wording. When the athlete asks why, the answer already exists.

Read-only tools · compact outputs · one honesty contract

The agent gets statistical depth without permission to invent performance advice.

05 / Outputs

Start with one athlete audit. Reuse the same answer anywhere.

The first surface is a Driver Card a coach can use in an athlete check-in. The same answer can feed a roster console or a read-only AI coaching tool without losing the effect, range, caveats, sample, or allowed wording.

ONE ANSWER / three readouts
Report

Driver Card report

Turn one athlete's existing exports into a shareable audit: what likely matters this week, how strong the evidence is, and what not to say when the data is too thin.

Roster

Roster console

Run the same per-athlete evidence gate across a roster and see which relationships are supported, exploratory, borrowed, or declined for each athlete.

Agent

Agent grounding

Expose the same findings through read-only evidence packets, so a coaching agent reads your athlete's stats before it writes advice.

06 / How it works

How AthDash decides whether to say yes, maybe, or no.

Five checks, in order, every time. This is why AthDash can recommend an adjustment, flag it as a hypothesis, or say the data is too thin.

01

Ingest

sources

Accept the athlete exports coaches already have, including wellness, sessions, FIT files, and benchmarks, then align them to one athlete timeline.

02

Model

training question

Declare the possible input, the outcome, the timing window, and the obvious confounders for your athlete. AthDash tests the question; it does not treat a pattern as truth.

03

Stress test

placebo + uncertainty

Check each estimate against confounders, small-sample uncertainty, and placebo shifts. Fragile relationships are downgraded or withheld instead of promoted.

04

Gate

honesty

Return SUPPORTED, EXPLORATORY, or INSUFFICIENT, then attach how strongly the coach or agent may word the recommendation.

05

Deliver

with uncertainty

Ship the finding as your athlete's Driver Card, console payload, or AI-readable evidence packet, with the effect, range, caveats, and allowed wording still attached.

Deterministic system

The catalog comes before the model.

AthDash does not ask an AI coaching agent to discover a training rule from raw exports. The public operating model is stricter: a signal catalog decides what can be trusted, a registry frames the athlete-specific question, and the engine returns only the claim the evidence licenses.

Same athlete data, same catalog, same engine path: the gates, estimates, intervals, evidence states, and wording permissions stay reproducible.

Signal catalog

Every candidate signal starts with an eligibility rule.

Personal baselines come first. Device-class differences stay visible. Attractive shortcuts are rejected before they reach the audit.

population cutoffs ACWR danger zones sleep-stage advice wearable VO2max outcomes
Question registry

The training question has to be declared.

The system names the driver, outcome, lag window, aggregation, direction, and likely confounders before estimating anything. A vague dashboard pattern never becomes a Driver Card by itself.

Causal graph

Adjustment is derived, not improvised.

AthDash uses the declared relationship and graph structure to decide what must be adjusted for, what should not be adjusted away, and where small samples or placebo shifts should downgrade the claim.

Claim license

The output carries its own permission.

SUPPORTED can become advice, EXPLORATORY stays a hypothesis, and INSUFFICIENT becomes a clean no-claim state. The same license travels into the Driver Card, roster payload, and AI-readable packet.

07 / Proof

Every training claim has to survive the audit.

AthDash does not prove a claim by storing more data. It licenses a claim only when the athlete's own outcomes survive adjustment, interval width, placebo checks, and the no-claim gate.

The engine tries to break the finding first.

Each Driver Card starts with real coach exports and repeatable benchmark outcomes. Then the registry frames one driver-to-outcome question, the causal graph derives the adjustment set, and the estimator checks whether the interval and placebo test still permit advice.

Accepted files CSV ZIP FIT wellness, sessions, rides, benchmarks
Claim states 3 supported, exploratory, insufficient
Agent policy 7 licenses ACT down to DECLINE
Input recordparsed
WHOOPHRV, RHR, respiration, sleep
FITefficiency factor, decoupling
CSVrepeatable benchmark outcomes
driver outcome load travel
Refusal ruleIf the benchmark history is too thin, the same pipeline returns insufficient_data and does not show an effect to the agent.
Claim teststress checked
Adjusted effect with placebo check The fitted athlete effect clears zero while the lag-shifted placebo stays flat. zero effect adjusted athlete effect placebo stays flat
within-athlete OLS + HAC SE +2.4%
+0.9 0 +3.8
Evidence packet state: supported / n: 18 / ci: +0.9..+3.8 / placebo: clean / caveat: fatigue flag
Claim gatelicensed
adjust

Backdoor set derived from the causal graph, not chosen after seeing the result.

interval

Effect is shown with its 95% range. Width stays visible before the coach acts.

placebo

Lag-shifted control can demote the finding when the pattern is fragile.

Allowed wording ADVISE

Say the adjustment likely helped, but keep the fatigue caveat attached. If the interval crossed zero, this would become HYPOTHESIZE or WITHHOLD.

Interval calibration 0.950

HAC CI coverage at n=12 in the validation harness after small-sample t inference.

False supported ceiling 0.050

Max Type-I rate across null validation cells. Weak null patterns stay exploratory.

Grounding invariant 5/5

Insufficient edges carry no effect, and exploratory reasons state the real failure mode.

08 / Founding audits

What you get in a founding audit.

The paid founding offer is a focused audit for coaches and trainers with real exports from the athlete in front of them. You send the athlete history; AthDash returns Driver Cards for the current training decision: what to adjust, what to watch, and what not to say yet.

What you send

One athlete's existing exports, benchmark history, and notes on obvious confounders.

What we return

Plain-English Driver Cards for your athlete's current decision, with effect, likely range, evidence state, caveats, allowed wording, and next-data guidance.

What we refuse to claim

No effect from insufficient data, no personalized claim from a borrowed prior, no medical diagnosis, and no claim that outruns your athlete's own history.

Founding
Causal Driver Audit
For coaches and trainers who want a plain-English audit on one athlete's real exports.
  • Export-based ingestion
  • Shareable Driver Card reports
  • Confounder and caveat review
  • No data resale
Explore demo dashboard
Add-on
Roster audit
For coaches who want the same per-athlete audit packet across a small roster.
  • Roster console payloads
  • Supported, exploratory, borrowed, or declined states
  • Compact evidence packets
  • Priority support
Request a roster audit
Later
Hosted teams
For squads, federations, and performance departments once the managed product is ready.
  • Production billing
  • Team permissions
  • Managed export-source setup
  • Department support
Discuss team audit needs
09 / FAQ

Questions, answered honestly.

What does AthDash actually do?+
AthDash reviews one athlete's existing exports and returns Driver Cards for the next training decision. Each card says what is most worth adjusting, how strong the evidence is, the caveats, and what not to say yet. If the data is too thin, AthDash returns INSUFFICIENT instead of filling the gap with a guess.
Where does the data come from?+
From exports coaches and trainers already have for the athlete being audited: intervals.icu, WHOOP, TrainingPeaks, Oura, Garmin, FIT files, Apple Health, and tidy CSV/JSON. Some sources are parsed as wellness data, some as sessions, and benchmark outcomes are usually added as a simple CSV.
Is this a medical device?+
No. AthDash is a performance-analysis tool for coaches and trainers, not a diagnostic or medical device. It does not diagnose, treat, or prevent any condition, and nothing it returns is medical advice.
How is this different from a readiness score?+
A readiness score gives you one number for today. AthDash gives you a next step: which training, recovery, or scheduling input looks most worth changing for this athlete, and whether the evidence is strong enough to act on.
Can I export the answer?+
Yes. Driver Card reports, roster console payloads, and AI-readable evidence packets all carry the same athlete-specific answer: suggested adjustment, effect, likely range, sample, caveats, evidence state, and allowed wording.
What happens when there isn't enough data?+
AthDash returns a too-thin answer and explains what data would make the next audit stronger. It does not turn a weak pattern into advice.
Is AthDash causal or correlational?+
AthDash is more careful than a correlation dashboard because it tests athlete-specific relationships with declared timing, confounders, uncertainty, and placebo checks. It is still an estimate, not proof.
How does this help an AI coaching agent?+
AthDash digests one athlete's raw exports with deterministic code, then returns a compact evidence packet: suggested adjustment, effect, range, sample, caveats, evidence state, and allowed wording. The current integration surface is a local stdio MCP grounding server for read-only audit evidence; hosted or remote API work is planned, not live.
What is an effect modifier?+
A condition that may change a relationship's strength or sign for one athlete. AthDash tests whether the relationship changes under specific conditions and only promotes the modifier when the evidence clears the gate.
Does it replace a coach?+
No. AthDash is decision support: it tells you what your athlete's evidence says and how sure it is. The training call, and the relationship with the athlete, stays yours.

Glossary

Short definitions for the words that show up in Driver Cards, roster payloads, and AI-readable packets.

evidence packet
The small AI-readable version of one athlete's Driver Card: suggested adjustment, outcome, evidence state, effect, range, sample, caveats, and directive.
claim gate
The background check before a sentence becomes advice. If athdash_can_i_claim returns WITHHOLD or DECLINE, the agent cannot claim the relationship.
allowed wording
How far the agent may go, from DECLINE to ACT. The estimate carries its own permission instead of relying on the model to self-police.
read-only tool
The agent can query AthDash, but it cannot mutate athlete records, rewrite evidence, or manufacture a new effect through the local MCP surface.
borrowed prior
A cohort signal for cold-start athletes. It may be offered only as borrowed evidence, never as if it were proven for that athlete.
decline
A valid answer, not a failure. When the data is too thin, the safest product behavior is to stop the advice before it reaches the athlete.

Make this week's training decision from your athlete's evidence.

Start here: what should I change for my athlete this week?